Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 146.675083 175.436113 210.365859 256.570412 317.099095 3.951783e+02 5.060531e+02
2025-04-20 117.639270 153.336012 202.174170 276.325819 390.796199 5.698137e+02 8.920230e+02
2025-04-27 100.369413 139.064989 196.821299 294.378493 466.856940 7.873615e+02 1.518042e+03
2025-05-04 88.072082 127.856594 191.415987 308.536981 541.304179 1.048863e+03 2.525804e+03
2025-05-11 78.194350 117.768946 184.536297 316.801934 607.901551 1.344735e+03 4.108873e+03
2025-05-18 69.847831 108.348202 176.251685 319.186899 663.117762 1.663217e+03 6.552393e+03
2025-05-25 62.330751 98.953112 165.862827 313.843323 697.743653 1.961229e+03 1.001548e+04
2025-06-01 55.894001 90.435687 155.413961 305.253387 720.312429 2.250549e+03 1.507264e+04
2025-06-08 50.504404 83.050050 145.830830 295.995132 737.209228 2.547594e+03 2.283995e+04
2025-06-15 49.206350 83.067640 151.128075 324.190951 887.331025 3.703281e+03 6.446405e+04
2025-06-22 45.977869 78.916174 146.883508 326.757658 953.993796 4.577144e+03 1.500851e+05
2025-06-29 43.708047 76.359979 145.667703 337.303940 1059.967616 6.031044e+03 5.699347e+05
2025-07-06 40.418532 71.507926 138.849770 331.094400 1099.941794 7.185050e+03 2.496161e+06
2025-07-13 39.568718 71.598826 143.562156 361.444829 1336.343452 1.168402e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 38.470112 71.011135 146.552580 387.939995 1591.053497 1.919229e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 37.133623 69.728375 147.574774 408.534481 1846.307862 3.145611e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 35.543564 67.685298 146.271747 420.555977 2070.502167 5.004164e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 33.781863 65.054711 142.972061 424.030659 2245.105499 7.619971e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 31.806052 61.730928 137.284050 416.278003 2324.878625 1.044299e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 29.865867 58.316793 130.890506 403.845478 2353.991274 1.354701e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 28.076762 55.107876 124.671248 390.492550 2363.695425 1.727719e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 28.001113 55.983736 130.315482 431.311524 3014.493544 7.050220e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 26.893240 54.237949 127.975566 435.049604 3271.248016 1.774597e+06 NaN